tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post2362556661427430763..comments2024-01-31T14:12:23.950-08:00Comments on Rob's Vegas and Poker Blog: “Can I Spread My Legs Around the Button?” Part 1Robhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05767080296489122846noreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-78044592463750893932013-02-24T08:43:51.609-08:002013-02-24T08:43:51.609-08:00Thanks, Lane!Thanks, Lane!Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05767080296489122846noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-18069484659334852722013-02-24T02:17:11.972-08:002013-02-24T02:17:11.972-08:00Thoroughly enjoyed reading this :) Come check out ...Thoroughly enjoyed reading this :) Come check out my blog too http://fastlanepoker.blogspot.ca/Lane Andersonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03286867450846484036noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-45059443607749545372013-02-03T11:08:06.947-08:002013-02-03T11:08:06.947-08:00Thanks, Andy. Honestly, I never did really consid...Thanks, Andy. Honestly, I never did really consider moving away from her, both for the blog and the poker, despite what I said above.Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05767080296489122846noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-66493560908185361662013-02-03T11:00:19.063-08:002013-02-03T11:00:19.063-08:00Why would you have even thought about a table chan...Why would you have even thought about a table change here? This is the type of table you should always want to play it. I know I do. These are the types of tables where you'll make the most money. A dream table I would call it.Andynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-13183492529376265202013-02-03T02:13:32.017-08:002013-02-03T02:13:32.017-08:00Thanks, LM. It's about time somebody thanked m...Thanks, LM. It's about time somebody thanked me for the sacrifices I make for my readers.<br /><br />Not only do I have to play poker for my readers, but it is sometimes necessary to study cleavage for an inordinate amount of time so I can report back to my readers. <br /><br />It is a huge sacrifice on my part, and it is nice to occasionally get appreciated for it.Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05767080296489122846noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-69255398753254270372013-02-03T02:09:49.060-08:002013-02-03T02:09:49.060-08:00I love it when I say something so stupid you get t...I love it when I say something so stupid you get to do your own post on your blog! When I have time I will more thoroughly read your own post and comment there, if necessary.<br /><br />Glad I inspired you!Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05767080296489122846noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-51440581014088635172013-02-02T21:57:01.027-08:002013-02-02T21:57:01.027-08:00We readers thank you for your sacrifice of having ...We readers thank you for your sacrifice of having to stay and play poker just for the blog post. Thank you!Luv Maltshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07172516188826188552noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-21079827929974429432013-02-02T20:18:56.083-08:002013-02-02T20:18:56.083-08:00You have cause and effect all turned around. I kne...You have cause and effect all turned around. I knew two years ago that I was going to be moving to live near my girlfriend (at the time I thought that was going to be Washington, DC, though the target city changed last year). That meant being able to live without depending on poker income. So I went to great lengths to take on consulting work that I can do from home, wherever I live. As the consulting work grew, my available time for poker became less, so of course I made less from poker. THAT WAS THE PLAN--to get to the point where I didn't need poker income to support myself. <br /><br />I am at a loss to explain how that story makes me (1) "embarrassed by how [I] was doing at poker" or (2) a less credible source of poker strategy advice. Rakewellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15873391354585352712noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-47777971539642777422013-02-02T18:52:25.835-08:002013-02-02T18:52:25.835-08:00no offense, i just was bringing to peoples attenti...no offense, i just was bringing to peoples attention how grump has said in his own words that most of his income isnt from playing poker, but from his side consulting legal business. if his income was from poker, him and cardgrrl wouldnt chosen NC to live<br /><br />now me, no many how small my income is from poker, and im sure its even less than grumps, but not cause of my ability of course, but the size of my roll, but no matter how small, id never give it up to move. sevencard2003https://www.blogger.com/profile/05723960642218345696noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-34798488993754005472013-02-02T12:39:47.059-08:002013-02-02T12:39:47.059-08:00Yes. Tony's surmise--for which he has not one ...Yes. Tony's surmise--for which he has not one iota of actual data--is emotionally crippling. If I were not already planning to move, I would have to do so now. Who could continue to show one's face in a city where one has been called out by the great TBC? Rakewellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15873391354585352712noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-84800502228911022522013-02-02T12:08:17.124-08:002013-02-02T12:08:17.124-08:00At the risk of beating the proverbial dead horse, ...At the risk of beating the proverbial dead horse, I thought of a way to do the math even more rigorously--and therefore, hopefully, more convincingly. I did a post on my blog about the results: <br /><br />http://pokergrump.blogspot.com/2013/02/tighten-up-or-loosen-up-against-ultra.html<br />Rakewellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15873391354585352712noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-37507291236842162222013-02-02T11:44:22.325-08:002013-02-02T11:44:22.325-08:00Yeah, I was tempted to do my own "Grumps note...Yeah, I was tempted to do my own "Grumps notes" version of his comment in response.<br /><br />But I didn't want to tease the poor guy like that because I know he is still smarting from having busted out early from his own "grumpament" last nite while both Prudence and I cashed.<br /><br />But no doubt more devastating to Grump was the stinging comment from Tony above. <br /><br />I'm sure he'll never be able to get those words out of his mind as he drives to NC.Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05767080296489122846noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-9408812965646957142013-02-02T11:36:05.333-08:002013-02-02T11:36:05.333-08:00Oohh ... Grump posts a Rob-like comment to a Rob p...Oohh ... Grump posts a Rob-like comment to a Rob post!<br /><br />I pretty much agree with Grump. When I play with really loose people I loosen up or leave the table if it doesn't feel right. I don't loosen up so much that I am pissing away money on raises I don't/can't back up, however ...lightning36https://www.blogger.com/profile/05641629003610446976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-45479417996574755762013-02-02T02:45:12.477-08:002013-02-02T02:45:12.477-08:00Awesome analysis, Grump, thanks.
I repeat, I ho...Awesome analysis, Grump, thanks. <br /><br />I repeat, I hope all of us poker playerr will continue to see such great analysis and commentary after leave Vegas for the confines of NC.Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05767080296489122846noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-78801211260737014182013-02-02T02:13:21.636-08:002013-02-02T02:13:21.636-08:00(continued)
Alternatively, you could loosen up....(continued) <br /><br /><br />Alternatively, you could loosen up. If you take your starting standards down to A-9, you now get five such hands per hour rather than three. About 5 out of 12 times you and your opponent will both be playing kickers in the 9-K range, and those will be a wash in the long run. About 7/12 times, you will have the best kicker and win. So your profit over 12 hands is $700, or an average of $700/12 = $58 per hand. This is obviously less than the per-hand profit from your baseline strategy. But you're getting five of them per hour instead of three, so your profit rises to 5 x $58 = $290/hour, a good deal better than $225/hour at baseline strategy. <br /><br />Here's the Reader's Digest version: You want to expand your starting hand range enough that your profits go up by winning more pots, but not so much that your average starting hand range is the same as theirs. As long as you're reasonably judicious about it, the increased frequency of wins will more than compensate for the smaller profit per hand. Against a bunch of people who are playing any two cards, you can expand your range quite a bit and still on average have the strongest starting hand, which translates into the highest probability of winning the pot, assuming that you don't play worse than they do post-flop. <br /><br />Again I stress that this is not the kind of question on which reasonable people can have opposite but equally valid opinions, like whether strawberries are better than raspberries. The math (the real math, not just the back-of-the-envelope version I'm doing here) clearly favors widening your starting hand range. It does necessarily bring higher variance, but if the question is just long-term average profits, there's no serious question about the direction of the correct adjustment. Unlike most poker questions, here there is a factually, objectively right answer: Loosening up is more profitable, tightening up is less profitable. Those who disagree are simply wrong. <br />Rakewellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15873391354585352712noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-84637314039118174092013-02-02T02:12:47.696-08:002013-02-02T02:12:47.696-08:00At the risk of sounding arrogant, this is not real...At the risk of sounding arrogant, this is not really a point subject to debate. It's kind of like evolution--it's true even if you don't happen to believe in it. It is not a matter of taste or opinion. It is just a fact that at a table with many players who are playing any two cards, you will, on average, make more money by loosening your starting hand requirements than by tightening them up. <br /><br />Let's consider a specific category of example. Let's assume that your table is full of people who will willingly put their entire stacks in with top pair/any kicker, and they play any starting hand with an ace in it. You, conversely, don't play any ace with a kicker worse than a jack. <br /><br />Naturally, when you and another player are in a hand and there is an ace on the flop, you will win much more often than you will lose, because you will have the better kicker much more often than he does. (Obviously, sometimes the opponent will make two pair or a weird straight or flush. But so will you, and those things should be about equal over time.) <br /><br />Now you can choose to make an adjustment because of the looseness of the table. Do you go tighter or looser? Suppose you go tighter, and don't play any ace except A-K. Clearly you will win the confrontations even more often now, because you will always have the better kicker (sometimes chopping when the opponent also has A-K). But you will get into those situations (i.e., where both you and an opponent flop top pair) much less often, because you now play only 1/3 as many A-x hands as you did before. You make less money overall, because losing 2/3 of the opportunities to stack opponents is a much bigger loss than the gain from never being outkicked. <br /><br />Now consider what happens if, instead, you expand your starting hand allowance down to, say, A-9, while your opponents continue to play all the way down to A-2. You will be outkicked more often now than with your baseline strategy, because your opponent can have, e.g., A-K against not just your A-Q and A-J, but also your A-10 and A-9. However, you also increase by 67% the number of times you will get into top pair vs. top pair confrontations. <br /><br />We can even get semi-quantitative about this. In your baseline strategy, about 1/4 of the time you will both be playing a K, Q, or J kicker. Those instances will be a wash in the long run, so let's ignore them. About 3/4 of the time your opponent is playing a 2-10 kicker, and you win. (I'm basically ignoring the situations where you chop because you have the same kicker. There will also be hands where neither kicker plays because they're below the cards on the board. But never mind that. As I said, this is just semi-quantitative for illustrative purposes, not rigorous.) So if effective stacks are, say, $100, you average a profit of about $75 every time one of these confrontations occurs. <br /><br />Now you tighten up to just A-K. Now you win 100% of the confrontations, but they occur only 1/3 as often. Suppose you were getting three such confrontations an hour before (the actual number doesn't matter), for a profit rate from this type of hand of $225/hour. Now the profit on each confrontation is $100, but you're having just one of them per hour. Your profit drops from $150/hour to $100/hour. <br />Rakewellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15873391354585352712noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-41885182441454024842013-02-01T11:10:52.559-08:002013-02-01T11:10:52.559-08:00No, Tony, the comment I asked you about was on the...No, Tony, the comment I asked you about was on the post "She's Got the Greatest Ass of All Time." I only questioned it because I sincerely thought it might be someone pretending to be you, not because it was in anyway offensive. So I posted the question, "was it really you?" as a comment on your blog, you neither approved the comment or answered if it was you or not. So I didn't post it. I figured if you wanted it published, you'd eventually ask about it.<br /><br />As for the comment above about Grump, I again thought it might be someone impersonating you, but I figured I'd let it go because I was pretty sure that Grump wouldn't be offended by it and you could always ask me to delete it if it wasn't you.<br /><br />But now with your comment here, I'm assuming you're admitting that both were indeed your comments, so I went ahead and posted the comment I was originally questioning this morning. <br /><br />Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05767080296489122846noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-62222353459159920262013-02-01T11:03:04.906-08:002013-02-01T11:03:04.906-08:00Thanks, Jeff. Definitely Grump makes some good po...Thanks, Jeff. Definitely Grump makes some good points, but like all poker decisions and strategies, IT DEPENDS.Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05767080296489122846noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-82116423115902914572013-02-01T11:01:57.331-08:002013-02-01T11:01:57.331-08:00Yeah, it's embarrassing to be winning enough a...Yeah, it's embarrassing to be winning enough at poker to make a living at it.Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05767080296489122846noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-7722457826425712412013-02-01T11:01:04.122-08:002013-02-01T11:01:04.122-08:00Thanks, AgSweep and thanks for commenting.
It'...Thanks, AgSweep and thanks for commenting.<br /><br />It's true no one was paying attention to me at all, but that could also be a point in favor of Grump's position.Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05767080296489122846noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-41521269116693037902013-02-01T10:57:48.991-08:002013-02-01T10:57:48.991-08:00Great comment on my little typo there! Now I can&...Great comment on my little typo there! Now I can't correct it because your response is too good. But you know, if Natalee ever had a problem getting off, I'm sure her excuse would be, "I've been playing blackjack all day."<br /><br />Frigid poker player, huh? I never would have put you on that!Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05767080296489122846noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-44744608909632524412013-02-01T10:54:17.506-08:002013-02-01T10:54:17.506-08:00Thanks Grump. First off, your analogy there is pr...Thanks Grump. First off, your analogy there is priceless. Just hysterical. Although, if it was the Playboy Mansion, wouldn't the women be topless? I would hope so.<br /><br />As for your thoughts, well, I always appreciate your thoughtful poker analysis. I hope I can still count on getting such great feedback after you move to NC. And as you can see, you've sparked some interesting debate. <br /><br />That does leave me a bit perplexed, because I thought I was doing a sleazy "woman said" post and somehow a poker post broke out.<br /><br />I definitely see your point, and perhaps I should have tried harder to look for opportunities. I will certainly remember that next time I'm sitting with a table full of maniacs.<br /><br />I did read the post you referenced and enjoyed it. I can say however that I have read much advice to the contrary. In fact, a WSOP bracelet winner I know personally has told me that he always tries to play tight when the table is loose, and loose when the table is tight.Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05767080296489122846noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-70915283275002583932013-02-01T10:47:19.021-08:002013-02-01T10:47:19.021-08:00Sorry I didn't approve this comment until just...Sorry I didn't approve this comment until just now, it was an accident, I didn't see the email, it got "lost" in between the other two comments you made.Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05767080296489122846noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-8584094918237116372013-02-01T10:46:25.910-08:002013-02-01T10:46:25.910-08:00LOL! I hadn't made the connection but, get th...LOL! I hadn't made the connection but, get this, when you see the second part, you'll see that's there a nothing similarity between Natalee and Tony. And it has nothing to do with mashed potatoes.Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05767080296489122846noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-75460970906349771742013-02-01T09:01:23.599-08:002013-02-01T09:01:23.599-08:00Rob said he wasnt going to approve this comment un...Rob said he wasnt going to approve this comment until i verified it was me, i thought it was no big deal, reconsidered saying the comment and now i see hes posted it anyway. oh well. sevencard2003https://www.blogger.com/profile/05723960642218345696noreply@blogger.com