As promised, this is the follow-up to
my previous post (here), with the pocket
Jacks. As I made clear, I was really
bummed by the hand, and my reaction at the time was that I had badly misplayed
the hand. I spent way too much time
obsessing over the hand for the next few hours, and then did my best to just
forget about it after that. As I said
last time I promised myself at the time that I not only wouldn't blog about it,
I wouldn't mention it to anyone.
Of course, if you read the comments I
got to my write-up on the hand, you will notice that it is the consensus that I
didn't misplay the hand at all (at least not in any way that would have changed
the ultimate result) and that it was just bad luck. Given the other player and the cards and the
way they played out, there was nothing I could have done. I was supposed to go broke on that hand.
Which brings me to the question, why
didn't I realize this at the time?
It's a good question. I've certainly played enough poker by now to
have had hands like that before. It was
far from the first time I've been kicked in the pants by the poker gods. If it was so obvious to everyone else, why
wasn't it obvious to me? For whatever
reason, I wasn't able to look at it objectively. I'd like to think if that exact hand had
happened to one of my poker buddies and it was related to me, I'd have been
able to recognize that it was just one of those tough hands that there's no way
to get away from.
One thing that may have played in to
it was that I was having a nice run since I'd arrived in Vegas. Which is unusual. For some reason, usually when I start a Vegas
trip I tend to run bad to start, then spend the rest of the trip digging out of
a hole. This time I started out winning
and had never looked back. I had left
every session ahead until the session the night before this one. And even then, I didn't lose much. And to this point, I had never been down a
buy-in (or anywhere close to a buy-in) in any session. So I guess I'd maybe almost forgotten what it
was like to have a rough session.
Whatever, I had been back in L.A. for
at least a week before my brain returned to that hand. And it no longer gave me a pain in my gut to
think about it. I still wasn’t ready to
analyze it myself, but at least I figured I could talk about it. So I did what I usually do when I have tough
hand to work through. I discussed it
with my buddy Don. Don is not only a
real student of the game, but he is being coached by top poker pro. When I run hands by him, I get his take (it's
sort of a good quiz for him), which is influenced by the coaching he's
getting. Then he often runs it by the
coach to see if he's on the right track.
So I get some great input.
I texted him the hand history. I did preface it with a confession that I was
really bothered by how I played it and at the end I said, "I was really
pissed at my play."
After reading through the hand, Don
replied, "I don’t think you should be pissed at your play. I think you are
going to go broke on that runout."
He went on. "Preflop, you’ve got the 4th (or 5th
depending upon where you rank AK) best hand. You make a normal raise and a guy
who is really aggressive repops it big, which is his standard play. Honestly,
I’m never folding there."
I reiterated that I never considered
folding preflop.
"Let’s say he is playing the top
25% of hands and 3-betting the top 1/4 of that range. That would mean his 3-bet
range is something like 6% of hands. That would be basically something like
10-10 plus, AJ suited plus, AQ off plus, and KQ suited. Running that range
through Equilab, JJ is a slight underdog to the range. Honestly, I might have
4-bet him right there. But, looking at that Equilab result, I think flatting is
the better play preflop.
"So, let’s go with that call. The
other guy folds and you go to a flop with a pot of $132 (his $63, your $63, the
flat call of $12 and the small blind, minus $7 in rake and jackpot). You have
about $280 behind so, you are a little over 2-1 stack to pot. The guy bets $53,
making the pot $185. Honestly, given what you’ve told me, I rip it in right
there. You have an overpair, and the flop connects with none of his range. If
his range is as I laid out, then it contains 60 hands and against his entire
range JJ is a 53% to 49% favorite. So, push the edge and get it in there.
"Out of the 60 hands in his range,
21 (the combos of AA, KK, QQ and 10-10 which flopped a set) have you crushed
and you are most likely going to get called by all of them. Although, he could
conceivably consider a fold with QQ if he thinks you are that nitty. If he
folds that, it’s a HUGE HUGE win for you. The remaining 38 hands in his range,
you are crushing as a whole. However, most of those hands have a lot of equity
against you. For example, AK suited with a backdoor flush draw has 27% equity
against your hand but is going to have a hell of a time calling a shove. KQ
suited with a flush draw has 32% equity against you and also has a hell of a
time calling.
"So, to get to the question that my
coach always asks me to think about 'What part of his range are you attacking
with your bet?' The answer is that by shoving you are attacking the 38 hands in
his range that have decent equity against you and shoving to deny them that
equity. In addition, there is one hand in his range (the other combo of JJ)
that you chop with and are trying to deny the chop to. Furthermore, there are 6
hands in his range (the combos of QQ), that have you crushed, but that could
potentially find a fold versus a shove.
"The reason that I think shoving
the flop is better than calling the flop is that once you call, you are
basically committed. The pot becomes $238 and you have about pot left behind.
Therefore, if you are already beat, (aka, you ran into the top of his range),
then you are almost certainly going broke anyhow. So, the better play is to
deny equity to the remainder of his range.
"As a bonus, you put tremendous
pressure on the weakest part of the top of his range (QQ and JJ) and could get
a fold from them."
I responded, "So as played, I
pretty much have to call the turn even without the extra equity I picked up?"
Don replied, "As played, with
that turn, you have to stack off"
Yep.
I wish I could have justified my play myself.
He did ask his coach if his own take
was indeed correct. Here is what his
coach said. "Yup that all looks
good, although since he’s in position I do think flatting (on the flop) is ok
here as well since we only give him one free card, but I also like just shoving
to deny equity to all his 2 overcard hands. But maybe it’s best to raise JJ and
flat the slightly stronger hands like QQ/KK that have less vulnerability. Then
we call almost any turn (we have to consider folding to an ace on the turn) in
order to trap his bluffs."
So Don really had a great take, as
confirmed by his excellent coach. I was
just destined to lose my stack there.
Well then. I didn't butcher the hand (as you all told
me). But I probably should have just
shoved the flop. In this case, it
wouldn't have made any difference. Although
I did consider the possibility that the guy had me pegged as so big a nit that
he might have folded his Kings to a shove on the flop, thinking I either
flopped a set or had Aces (and didn't four-bet them preflop). Don said he is never folding Kings
there. Probably not….but I do think
there is a greater than zero possibility that he might have. OK, maybe just a 0.0015% chance?
Anyway, I'm glad I reached out to Don
and I thank him (and his coach) for his feedback. And thanks to all you guys for the feedback
too. I wanted to include Don's comments
because of the excellent mathematical analysis.
Really valuable.
The session has a somewhat happy
ending, but I'll save that for a future post.