tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post6021340968150861544..comments2024-01-31T14:12:23.950-08:00Comments on Rob's Vegas and Poker Blog: Overvaluing Ace-KingRobhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05767080296489122846noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-47841976323208552702013-06-04T17:21:03.408-07:002013-06-04T17:21:03.408-07:00It's the bane of my existence, LM. I pray for...It's the bane of my existence, LM. I pray for the day when the blog is successful enough that I can hire someone else to do this dreaded task for me.<br /><br />Thanks. Started in September, 2011.Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05767080296489122846noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-59118501613454306882013-06-04T13:14:55.184-07:002013-06-04T13:14:55.184-07:00I am just wondering what a tough job it is to sear...I am just wondering what a tough job it is to search for girlie photos to post ... having to see boobs and such. Sheesh!!!!! Great blog Rob ... all your posts are interesting and fun. How long has it been now that you've been blogging?Luv Maltshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07172516188826188552noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-81720198851206253172013-06-03T13:24:13.082-07:002013-06-03T13:24:13.082-07:00I'm definitely coming to you next time I need ...I'm definitely coming to you next time I need a differential equation solved.....Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05767080296489122846noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-29922185301864037402013-06-03T13:06:08.244-07:002013-06-03T13:06:08.244-07:00Welcome. And good idea to stick it on AVP. I am no...Welcome. And good idea to stick it on AVP. I am notorious for being able to solve 2nd order differential equations but to screw up basic arithmetic. ~KKat Martinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00973778274956344822noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-86936013521642652482013-06-03T13:01:18.113-07:002013-06-03T13:01:18.113-07:00Kat, I really, really appreciate all your thoughtf...Kat, I really, really appreciate all your thoughtful analysis. I love that and it makes think I'm actually doing a poker blog and not just a blog about tits. :)<br /><br />I think I will post this on AVP and see if I can get more feedback. I know I still have lots to learn about Hold'em in general and especially, No Limit in particular. It was barely more than a year ago when I would never dream of playing a NL cash game, and there is so much to learn.<br /><br />Assuming you're right, I DO undervalue AK....I not only never 4 bet it, I almost never three bet it (in a cash game)....only against super aggro players who I know are usually raising with crappy hands.<br /><br />I four bet rarely...AA, KK and well....that's it. So I guess I'm very exploitable. When I go out tonite, I'll pray that I'm up against somebody who reads this and I'll four-bet pocket 2's.....or 2-7! :)<br /><br />I don't think the guy had been there long enough to get a vibe on the husband and wife, other than that they were having a good time. He hadn't been there for an entire orbit.<br /><br />Thanks again, Kat.Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05767080296489122846noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-9377967128677500732013-06-03T12:37:34.243-07:002013-06-03T12:37:34.243-07:00Right he knows you're going to call when you i...Right he knows you're going to call when you invest half your stack, thus he knows he needs... he's a bit worse than 2 to 1... needs 38% and he's about 42% to win against QQ+,AK and 40% against KK+,AK. So the issue is does he read your 4b as ONLY AA and KK? If he does, which I agree is plausible, he should 3b-fold AKs which is pukey but oh well sigh. He's also making a slight mistake if you have QQ+. So I see three critical issues: 1. Do you ever 4b AK? 2. If your value 4b range is only QQ+ (or less), do you mix in light 4bs with hands like AXs and small pairs? (If you don't, you're highly exploitable, but so are most 1/2 players.) 3. While he may not have a read on you, has he been there long enough to notice the shenanigans of the husband and wife? If so, he knows that you know that he might be expanding his 3b range to isolate, thus you might be expanding your 4b range.<br /><br />Anyway, the main reason I jumped in here wasn't that I necessarily disagree with your main point - In a vacuum if I'd only played 2 orbits with you I might very well muck AKs in this spot. People with note-pads are rarely light 4-betters ;-) But based on the table chat I hear at 1/2 and 1/3 I think most people UNDERvalue AK. Kat Martinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00973778274956344822noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-39249108424950994712013-06-03T11:56:18.102-07:002013-06-03T11:56:18.102-07:00He's risking $163 for a pot that's $167......He's risking $163 for a pot that's $167...about even money. Of course he has fold equity there, I could fold. But it's unlikely that I would bet half my stack and then fold. But again, one of my initial comment was that he had absolutely no read on me, and if I have no read on a player, I don't expect him to four bet QQ at a 1/2 game in Vegas. Just my own observation. Maybe I'm being too conservative. If I have only $100 and I shove, yeah, I can easily read that as QQ or maybe even lower. But I see players open fold QQ in the situation I described all the time.<br /><br />When I call he's getting two to one. He wins more than 1/3 of the time?Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05767080296489122846noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-53827423540707703922013-06-03T11:38:22.680-07:002013-06-03T11:38:22.680-07:00Thanks Coach, I figured that was Kat was referring...Thanks Coach, I figured that was Kat was referring to (see below). His AK reduces the chances I have one of the two hands he most fears (tho if I have KK and he knows it's me, that's money in the bank for him!) :)Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05767080296489122846noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-69710167154488866272013-06-02T21:23:02.064-07:002013-06-02T21:23:02.064-07:00He holds blockers to an opponent holding AA or KK....He holds blockers to an opponent holding AA or KK. In other words, by holding AK you halve the number of available combinations of AA and KK.Kat Martinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00973778274956344822noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-60032842004392320082013-06-02T20:28:34.688-07:002013-06-02T20:28:34.688-07:00Regarding what Kat said, I don't see how the c...Regarding what Kat said, I don't see how the caller holds "blockers" - his lone ace is useless he can hook up a straight, and with the king, he needs 2 of 3 remaining in the deck (or the straight, flush, 4 of a kind to hit the board, etc...). Just be thankful that he called... :)~Coachhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00063024399528751971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-29915845567240759762013-06-02T18:11:24.945-07:002013-06-02T18:11:24.945-07:00Hmm.....ok, now you've given me a great homewo...Hmm.....ok, now you've given me a great homework assignment. I'm going do the math and see if you've made a fool out of me. Wouldn't be the first time (not YOU, that I recall, just not the first time it's happened to me, and it won't be the last).Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05767080296489122846noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-45641952903683471692013-06-02T18:05:20.481-07:002013-06-02T18:05:20.481-07:00He's risking $163. If your range is QQ+,AK he&...He's risking $163. If your range is QQ+,AK he'd be making a mathematical error by folding.Kat Martinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00973778274956344822noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-42483726961194788252013-06-02T17:53:55.480-07:002013-06-02T17:53:55.480-07:00Thanks, Kat. I always appreciate contrarian views...Thanks, Kat. I always appreciate contrarian views, and as well documented here, I don't claim to be an expert. <br /><br />Still, you have not convinced me. To me, risking $200 when the odds are overwhelming that you're way behind is too risky--I'd look for a better spot. If you want to just gamble like that, I think you're better off putting the $200 on black or red at the roulette wheel. But maybe that's why I'm not a better player! :)Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05767080296489122846noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8283462864090963789.post-50195705294284121952013-06-02T14:47:58.461-07:002013-06-02T14:47:58.461-07:00Well... When it gets back to him, there's a lo...Well... When it gets back to him, there's a lot of dead money in the pot, and he holds blockers to the only hands that dominate him. And by shoving he gets to see all 5 board cards. This in general is why AK is a great move-in hand. I agree this is more suspect live where a 4b from a mild-mannered man such as yourself tends to indicate a much narrower range than online, but I still don't hate his play.Kat Martinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00973778274956344822noreply@blogger.com