Bizarre Final Hand at Canada Cup

The final hand at this year’s PokerStars Canada Cup was a wild one indeed.  And not just because it started with the big stack at the table getting the dreaded pocket Kings.

The final table had been going on for nine hours, and then….well, watch it for yourself.

After watching it once or twice, I felt the last two players were both making huge errors.  But, after a few more viewings I realized something that changed my mind just a little bit.

Robert Notkin, the chip leader, just limped in with those Kings.  A very odd, very risky move.  I mean, when you’re down to four players in a tournament, aren’t you just dying to get a big pocket pair and raise with it?  If he was the short stack, I could see taking a chance and limping with them, thinking you might not get a call if you raise.  That’s still risky and I’d probably only do that with Aces—again, if I was the short stack and desperate.

But Notkin limped.  Justin Miller, next to act with a very short stack, shoved with King-Queen off.  Very logical play.  With that hand, he might have easily done that even if Notkin had raised, because he was so short.

So then it’s on Vincent Jacques with Ace-10 off and a fair amount of chips. He knows Miller could be shoving very light, and Notkin’s limp totally disguised his hand. He might have a low-to-medium pocket pair, or maybe just some random paint cards.  Jacques shove feels ok to me because of Notkin’s limp.  If Notkin had raised, and Miller had still shoved, then I would say it’s an easy fold for Jacques.

Ryan Rivers, with the third shortest stack and in the big blind, should have an easy fold with his pocket 8’s. Unless all of his opponents have the same hand—say Ace-King—he has to be very lucky to have the best hand on the river. Why not fold and hope that two of his opponents bust out on the hand?  Even though that would leave him incredibly short stacked, he’d move up to 2^nd place money.  Although I have to admit, with his stack, about 1/5’s of Jacques’, it does make it tempting.

Of course Notkin called and he can’t believe his good fortune (though he must have at least considered the possibility that one of his opponents had Aces).  It made for an incredibly exciting, dramatic finish.  Anybody recall any other tournament ending with three players busting on the final hand? 

What do you think?  Is my analysis flawed?

One thing’s for sure, it taught me how to play pocket Kings.  From now on, I limp with them.  That’s what made the hand play out that way.  The limp with pocket Kings.

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