This was supposed to a post about a
bad beat, about a horrific call my opponent made, and about his comment later
that showed he didn’t understand that he made a horrific call.
Then I wrote the post. The entire time I had been thinking about this
hand, for the past month, I never thought about the implied odds the guy
had. When I wrote the post, it suddenly
hit me that the implied odds might just change the way I thought about the play
of the hand.
So now I’m a bit confused, much more
so than before I wrote this.
Since I’m confused, I’m going put this
out there and ask readers to let me know how they feel about the hand. So let me have it, good or bad…..
In my last post, I reminded you that I spent a lot of time playing
limit hold’em (usually 2/4) before relatively recently switching to NL. While I think playing a lot of limit was very
valuable for me in my poker education, I have to admit that I may have learned
a few things that I had to unlearn when I started playing No Limit.
Specifically, I “learned” some things
about NL from the limit players I was playing with. It seemed, more often than not, I’d find
myself playing the limit game with players who had experience playing NL. And I can’t tell you how many times I heard a
certain expression. It was after someone
lost a pot where he or she was ahead and someone ended up hitting their draw to
take it down. And the loser would say,
“I couldn’t bet you off the hand.” Then
they would add something to the effect that, if we were playing No Limit, he
could indeed have bet enough to get the other person to fold their draw. There were variations of this, like players
complaining they couldn’t “protect” their hand in limit.
No matter how much I read up and
studying NL when I switched to it, I couldn’t get the idea that you had to “bet
people off their hands” out of my mind.
And every time I’d get my Aces or
Kings cracked by someone playing 9-4 offsuit, I’d think, well, I just didn’t
bet enough. I should have bet more to
get them off their hand. But no, when I
told these stories or posted them on the blog, I would get the voice of reason
as feedback. “You want them to call.” Of course that’s true. You want people to make bad calls. The odds are in your favor and most of the
time you’ll win. But since there’s luck
involved, sometimes you’ll lose. But as
long as you always get the money in “good”—when you are the favorite—in the
long run, you’ll win. So you don’t want
to bet some huge amount to get people off their hand, to protect it. You want to bet enough so that your opponent has
bad odds to make the call—and you hope they do make the call. You want them to call when they have bad
odds, right? If they fold and you take
down the pot, well, ok, you’ve won a small pot.
But you win bigger pots when you give them bad odds to call and they do
so anyway.
In the short term of course, that guy
calling with bad odds may hit his hand.
In the short run, that sucks. But
you’ll come out ahead in the long run.
Of course, that reminds me of what the
famed British economist John Maynard Keynes said a long time ago. “In the long run we’re all dead.”
Which brings me to this hand from last
month, which is more interesting for the post-hand commentary than the hand
itself, though it was sort of a brutal bad beat (everyone loves bad beat
stories, right?).
I was playing my usual 1/2 game in my
usual place. The guy on my immediate
right was Norwegian and a fairly typical European aggro. I had about $240 in front of me (from my $200
buy-in). The Norwegian had me
covered. An early position player raised
to $10, there was a call, the Norwegian called and I called in late position
with pocket 4’s. So there were four of
us in the hand.
You could say I liked the flop; it was
10-10-4. I was disappointed that the preflop raiser didn’t c-bet. It checked to
me, last to act. I decided to check. I
had a monster, the flop didn’t seem to hit anyone, and I had to hope that
somebody would like the turn card enough to give me some action.
The turn was some harmless looking
card, an 8 or a 9, whatever. The first
two players checked, but this time the Norwegian bet out $30. I took some time to consider my action. I had planned to bet this time if it checked
to me—you have start trying to build a pot some time, right? But now that the Norwegian had led into me,
what do I do?
I considered just calling. I really thought that, based on his play, he
didn’t have much and was just trying to steal it. If I raised, I didn’t think he call. Perhaps I could induce another bluff if I
just called?
But I did decide to raise. I made it $90. The other players folded immediately and the
Norwegian tanked. He took a good long
time to decide. I really thought he was
going to fold. We’d been playing
together for a couple of hours. He
surely had noticed that I had been playing tight. He had to know I had a big hand if I was
raising. Finally, after a long time, he
called. I was certainly fine with that. I didn’t read his hesitation as deciding
whether to call or shove with a bigger hand than mine. I was sure he came real close to folding which
meant I was in great shape to pick up a nice pot.
The river was a 5 and he quickly moved
all-in. I honestly didn’t think about it
at all. I snap-called. I’m not folding a boat there. If he had slow-played quads until then, well,
sucks to be me.
It did suck to me, but not because he
had pocket 10’s. He flipped over pocket
5’s! Ouch! He totally sucked out on me, hitting his
four-outer. I was in a bit of shock as I
reached into my pocket to get another $200 to re-buy. I can’t recall if I managed to utter the
totally insincere “Nice hand,” or not.
But he did say to me the equally insincere, “Sorry.” Actually though, he was a pretty nice guy and
to the extent that any poker player means it, he maybe might have.
But then he added, “But you didn’t bet
enough. You should have shoved there. I wouldn’t have called a shove.”
I try not to explain my actions at the
table—or give poker lessons—but I couldn’t help responding, “That would have
been a horrible bet, shoving there.” He
just shrugged and said, “I wouldn’t have called if you had shoved.”
Well that may be true, but that would
have been a bad bet, not getting value for my monster. It would be like shoving preflop every time
you get pocket Aces—that would really reduce your chances of getting them
cracked.
I didn’t say anything else. But what I wanted to say was, “Sir, I wanted
you to call there. You made a horrible
call. You wouldn’t have called a shove? You shouldn’t have called for $60 more. I was
a 90/10 favorite when you called. I wanted
you to call…….I just didn’t want you to hit your four-outer.”
Instead, I took a walk to clear my
head. When I came back, he patted me on
the shoulder and apologized again—in his own way. “I’m sorry, man. You didn’t bet enough.”
I was now totally silent. But it wasn’t lost on me that the guy had
tanked a long time before calling my turn raise. Was he calculating the odds? That’s would I would have thought. How did he calculate them? He must have known his 5’s were behind at that
point. What hand that I would bet with was
he beating? He had to know he had to hit something on the river to win. In fact, he could have been drawing dead—what
if my pocket pair matched the turn card (an 8 or a 9)? The way the action was, it was totally
logical for me to have a bigger boat than he was drawing to.
Not much later, talking about another
hand where he had a nice catch, another player commented on it. And then said, “And you got lucky before when
you got that full house.” And he replied,
“Yes, but he didn’t bet enough.”
He was a nice guy, as I said, but this
was annoying. I really did feel like
telling him that I wanted him to call there.
Note: this is where, when doing the
first-draft of this post, I started thinking of the implied odds. Because I did call his shove, And he won more than the $60 raise that he
called. But….still I was making a value
bet, I wanted him to call, and you know, how could I possibly fold a boat on
the river, especially against this specific player?
Sigh.
I paid him off. Was it a good play by him after all? Should I have shoved the
turn? Note: I might have gotten out of
this if I had bet the flop, but I don’t think he would have folded to any
reasonable flop bet I would have made.
Poker is not an easy game.





