Sunday, July 26, 2015

"You Should Have Bet More"

This was supposed to a post about a bad beat, about a horrific call my opponent made, and about his comment later that showed he didn’t understand that he made a horrific call.

Then I wrote the post.  The entire time I had been thinking about this hand, for the past month, I never thought about the implied odds the guy had.  When I wrote the post, it suddenly hit me that the implied odds might just change the way I thought about the play of the hand.

So now I’m a bit confused, much more so than before I wrote this.

Since I’m confused, I’m going put this out there and ask readers to let me know how they feel about the hand.  So let me have it, good or bad…..

In my last post, I reminded you that I spent a lot of time playing limit hold’em (usually 2/4) before relatively recently switching to NL.  While I think playing a lot of limit was very valuable for me in my poker education, I have to admit that I may have learned a few things that I had to unlearn when I started playing No Limit.

Specifically, I “learned” some things about NL from the limit players I was playing with.  It seemed, more often than not, I’d find myself playing the limit game with players who had experience playing NL.  And I can’t tell you how many times I heard a certain expression.  It was after someone lost a pot where he or she was ahead and someone ended up hitting their draw to take it down.  And the loser would say, “I couldn’t bet you off the hand.”  Then they would add something to the effect that, if we were playing No Limit, he could indeed have bet enough to get the other person to fold their draw.  There were variations of this, like players complaining they couldn’t “protect” their hand in limit.

No matter how much I read up and studying NL when I switched to it, I couldn’t get the idea that you had to “bet people off their hands” out of my mind.

And every time I’d get my Aces or Kings cracked by someone playing 9-4 offsuit, I’d think, well, I just didn’t bet enough.  I should have bet more to get them off their hand.  But no, when I told these stories or posted them on the blog, I would get the voice of reason as feedback.  “You want them to call.”  Of course that’s true.  You want people to make bad calls.  The odds are in your favor and most of the time you’ll win.  But since there’s luck involved, sometimes you’ll lose.  But as long as you always get the money in “good”—when you are the favorite—in the long run, you’ll win.  So you don’t want to bet some huge amount to get people off their hand, to protect it.  You want to bet enough so that your opponent has bad odds to make the call—and you hope they do make the call.  You want them to call when they have bad odds, right?  If they fold and you take down the pot, well, ok, you’ve won a small pot.  But you win bigger pots when you give them bad odds to call and they do so anyway.

In the short term of course, that guy calling with bad odds may hit his hand.  In the short run, that sucks.  But you’ll come out ahead in the long run.

Of course, that reminds me of what the famed British economist John Maynard Keynes said a long time ago.  “In the long run we’re all dead.”

Which brings me to this hand from last month, which is more interesting for the post-hand commentary than the hand itself, though it was sort of a brutal bad beat (everyone loves bad beat stories, right?).

I was playing my usual 1/2 game in my usual place.  The guy on my immediate right was Norwegian and a fairly typical European aggro.  I had about $240 in front of me (from my $200 buy-in).  The Norwegian had me covered.  An early position player raised to $10, there was a call, the Norwegian called and I called in late position with pocket 4’s.  So there were four of us in the hand.

You could say I liked the flop; it was 10-10-4. I was disappointed that the preflop raiser didn’t c-bet. It checked to me, last to act. I decided to check.  I had a monster, the flop didn’t seem to hit anyone, and I had to hope that somebody would like the turn card enough to give me some action.

The turn was some harmless looking card, an 8 or a 9, whatever.  The first two players checked, but this time the Norwegian bet out $30.  I took some time to consider my action.  I had planned to bet this time if it checked to me—you have start trying to build a pot some time, right?  But now that the Norwegian had led into me, what do I do?

I considered just calling.  I really thought that, based on his play, he didn’t have much and was just trying to steal it.  If I raised, I didn’t think he call.  Perhaps I could induce another bluff if I just called?

But I did decide to raise.  I made it $90.  The other players folded immediately and the Norwegian tanked.  He took a good long time to decide.  I really thought he was going to fold.  We’d been playing together for a couple of hours.  He surely had noticed that I had been playing tight.  He had to know I had a big hand if I was raising.  Finally, after a long time, he called.  I was certainly fine with that.  I didn’t read his hesitation as deciding whether to call or shove with a bigger hand than mine.  I was sure he came real close to folding which meant I was in great shape to pick up a nice pot.

The river was a 5 and he quickly moved all-in.  I honestly didn’t think about it at all.  I snap-called.  I’m not folding a boat there.  If he had slow-played quads until then, well, sucks to be me.

It did suck to me, but not because he had pocket 10’s.  He flipped over pocket 5’s!  Ouch!  He totally sucked out on me, hitting his four-outer.  I was in a bit of shock as I reached into my pocket to get another $200 to re-buy.  I can’t recall if I managed to utter the totally insincere “Nice hand,” or not.  But he did say to me the equally insincere, “Sorry.”  Actually though, he was a pretty nice guy and to the extent that any poker player means it, he maybe might have.

But then he added, “But you didn’t bet enough.  You should have shoved there.  I wouldn’t have called a shove.”

I try not to explain my actions at the table—or give poker lessons—but I couldn’t help responding, “That would have been a horrible bet, shoving there.”  He just shrugged and said, “I wouldn’t have called if you had shoved.”


Well that may be true, but that would have been a bad bet, not getting value for my monster.  It would be like shoving preflop every time you get pocket Aces—that would really reduce your chances of getting them cracked.

I didn’t say anything else.  But what I wanted to say was, “Sir, I wanted you to call there.  You made a horrible call.  You wouldn’t have called a shove?  You shouldn’t have called for $60 more. I was a 90/10 favorite when you called.  I wanted you to call…….I just didn’t want you to hit your four-outer.”

Instead, I took a walk to clear my head.  When I came back, he patted me on the shoulder and apologized again—in his own way.  “I’m sorry, man.  You didn’t bet enough.”

I was now totally silent.  But it wasn’t lost on me that the guy had tanked a long time before calling my turn raise.  Was he calculating the odds?  That’s would I would have thought.  How did he calculate them?  He must have known his 5’s were behind at that point.  What hand that I would bet with was he beating? He had to know he had to hit something on the river to win.  In fact, he could have been drawing dead—what if my pocket pair matched the turn card (an 8 or a 9)?  The way the action was, it was totally logical for me to have a bigger boat than he was drawing to.

Not much later, talking about another hand where he had a nice catch, another player commented on it.  And then said, “And you got lucky before when you got that full house.”  And he replied, “Yes, but he didn’t bet enough.”

He was a nice guy, as I said, but this was annoying.  I really did feel like telling him that I wanted him to call there.

Note: this is where, when doing the first-draft of this post, I started thinking of the implied odds.  Because I did call his shove,  And he won more than the $60 raise that he called.  But….still I was making a value bet, I wanted him to call, and you know, how could I possibly fold a boat on the river, especially against this specific player?

Sigh.  I paid him off.  Was it a good play by him after all?  Should I have shoved the turn?  Note: I might have gotten out of this if I had bet the flop, but I don’t think he would have folded to any reasonable flop bet I would have made.

Poker is not an easy game.

26 comments:

  1. Your opponent seems to think the purpose of poker is to win pots. He's wrong, obviously. FWIW I bet the flop 100% here. Admittedly when I do it I never get credit for a hand, whereas you more often will, but on your good days you'll get called by all pocket pairs and even overcards/Ax and on your great days you'll get check-raised by a T (and hold).

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    1. Thanks, Kat. Perhaps in Norway the purpose of poker is to win pots? There could be a cultural difference.

      I also need to rethink slowplaying monsters. Also...should try three-betting with rags, right?

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    2. One step at a time man. But yes.

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  2. There's another angle I've wondered about concerning these "you should have bet more" guys. I'm wondering if at some level they're acknowledging they played bad, but not *really* bad? So: "Yeah, man, that was a pretty bad call, but if you had bet more I swear I would not have made a truly abysmal one."

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    1. Excellent point sir.

      If I had shoved he might have called anyway. Then he would have said, "I had a hunch a 5 was coming."

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  3. People who make bad plays are always able to rationalize them... :)

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    1. True, Coach, very true.

      At least he didn't beat me with Queen-10.

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  4. Agree with Kat about slow playing. Just bet and see what happens. They either have something or not. Also, because you're last to act, they may not give you too much credit.

    He flipped over pocket 5’s! Ouch! He totally sucked out on me, hitting his four-outer.

    Wasn't it a two-outer?

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    1. Good point, MOJO, about betting. Yeah, it might have looked like I was stealing there.

      Two 5's are outs....what about the remaining two 10's? A 10 gives him 10's full of 5's to my 10's full of 4's, right?

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    2. Two 10's and two 5's give him 4outs. So that make it about an 8% for him to river a win vs your hand I believe. The pot is already at 160, he needed only another 60 to call your raised. All the % is in your favor and odds against him. He got lucky! I believe you did the right call with the raise.

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  5. Bet this flop 100% of the time. You're going to get calls from a lot of pocket pairs and even just over cards. What you really want is a call or raise from trip 10s. You want to get your stack in by the river, so get money in early and often.

    Re your opponent, he probably thought you were running a bluff, or talked himself into that idea. He's not calling there to hit a two-outer. But if he is, stay at his table until he's broke.

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    1. Thanks, Grange...

      So those of you saying I should have bet the flop....would you still say that if I was first to act instead of last to act?

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  6. In position, I bet ~80% of the time. Check-calling screams big hand. You need to bet most big hands here and some weak hands for balance.

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  7. He made a bad call and got lucky on the river.

    If last to act when I flop trips and it folds to me I would bet the flop. They may just think it is a position raise or you could get re-raised if someone has a ten or maybe a over pair.

    If I am first to act on the flop and not the pre-flop better. I will check and hopefully pre-flop better bets and then I will re-raise.

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    1. Unfortunately, the preflop raiser checked the flop. I was sure hoping for a c-bet there.

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  8. Also he might have just thought he was good on the turn and your re-raise was an attempt by you to steal the pot. But giving your tight play style it would be a bad call on his part.

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    1. Thanks for your comments, Nappy. I think it would have been easier for him to see my actions as a steal atempt if he he checked again and I had just bet out. But raising him there--the way I was playing--made it very unlikely I was making any kind of move.

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  9. Bet the flop ....yes you have a big hand but the underull is still vulnerable to bigger pairs or a 3rd T coming off (as You found out)

    So...if I understand correctly on the turn there is $70 in the pot afyer his bet and you make it $60 more and he calls getting about 2-1 on an 8% shot? You want to play this guy every day for the rest of your life...plain and simple. He hits his hand (if he isnot already drawing stone dead ) 1 in 8 times? ...getting 2 -1 odds?...even factoring in implied odds....thats some beautiful math....just be content knowing he willmiss 7 of 8 times and move on...reguarddless of what he says.

    I had a hand earlier that was sorta similar...I had 77 and the flop came TT7...biingo...I check called a minbet....turn T...bummer..check called another minbet...river T...now I am playing the board...check folded and A9 whoo was betting all the way nearly dead ...won it. Oh well...I had a bet and a call in front of me with the underfull and it went wrong....had I shoved flop I make nothing

    The guy called

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    1. Ouch! That's a bad beat. Ugh.

      Thanks for the feedback.

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    2. 8% is not 1 out of 8 tries. It is 1 out of 12.5 hands.. Or can round it up 1 out of 13 hands. Odds way in favor for Rob. Just saying..

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  10. You played it all right but got sucked out on. It the same thing when pocket KK get run down by A 5. You make a good play but variance comes calling. You always love it when people call or raise when there are behind. When people say you did not bet enough they are just egging you on. Its almost like they are trying to put you on tilt. Play your game and in the long run you make money.

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    1. Thanks, Ed. Never considered he was making the comment to get to me....to put me on tilt. The beat itself was enough to get me tilting.

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  11. Ed Miller would say flopping a boat is a "three streets of value" type of hand and your objective is to get your stack in by the river (assuming you're playing for 100BB+, which you are).

    Checking back this flop does not contribute to your goal. Pot is $40 before the flop - bet $25-$40 depending on how many callers you think you can get.

    Say you pop it to $30, get two callers, and have $200 behind. Turn is WGAF and there's $130 in the pot. Same as on the flop, bet somewhere around 65% to %75 pot - let's say $90 (to leave you $110 behind) and hope to get one caller.

    Shove any river and if you get sucked out on: GG. Reload, you'll get it back if that "long run" ever comes along.

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    1. Thanks, Anony. You are correct, totally forgot the Ed Miller, 3 streets of value rule. Wonder if it would have made a difference? He probably calls me on the flop, checks the turn and maybe folds to my turn bet? Or calls and shoves river. Hmm.....

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