Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Do You Like To Gamble?

Do You Like To Gamble? 

Well another Super Bowl has come and gone and unfortunately, this year I didn’t make it to Vegas for it as I have the past three years.

But I was on Twitter all through the game and with everyone tweeting about it, I felt like I was watching the game with a crowd.

One thing that always interests me is all the prop bets that I see my friends make.  I was amused when I saw that a few folks were putting serious money on the over/under for how long it would take to finish the National Anthem. Do people really feel they have a knowledge edge about this that they can somehow turn into a +EV wager?  Apparently they do.

What about those of you who like to bet on the coin toss?  Do you feel you have an edge picking heads or tails? (It was tails this year, wasn’t it?). 

I’m not much of a sports bettor. but if I was, I think I would personally stick to the bets more directly related to the outcome of the game.  But maybe I’m just too boring.  When I see the bets that people talk about making, I can sort of imagine it would be fun to bet on something that might seem silly just to have some action on it.  I hope my pals don’t risk too much on bets like that—and certainly not the rent money. 

But is it really any different than poker?  I mean, who amongst us hasn’t made a call or an attempted a bluff with a kind of a “what the heck” attitude?  No matter how tight one plays, sooner or later you’re gonna make a play that you know is a real gamble (like betting on a coin flip) more than it is the +EV play).

People do like to gamble.  And the thing with those prop bets, if the game gets boring, you still have an interest in it because some of your prop bets are alive.  I get it.

People will bet on anything.  The Academy Awards are coming up, and people like to bet on that. I heard a rumor that there’s a big election coming in the US in November, and somebody might want to bet on that.  Vegas won’t take those kind of bets, but there’s always an online option for that.

For that matter, there’s an online option for those of you who can’t get to Vegas to bet the Super Bowl, or March Madness, or the World Series, etc.  And of course, there’s an online option for those of you who want to play poker, or slots, or other casino games too..  More can be discovered here. 

As for the actual game this year, I didn’t have a strong rooting interest myself.  I was happy with the result though, Peyton Manning is too good a player to have to retire with only one ring.  It is ironic, however, that he gets that second ring when he is about 1/10th the QB that he was in his prime.  But man, what a dominating defense Denver had.



So what about you folks?  Do you like to make prop bets?  Do you bet on the Academy Awards?  Anyone have any money on who are next President will be?  Let me hear from you, what appeals to you about bets like that?

13 comments:

  1. The only thing I would bet on is sporting events. However, I really don't enjoy it. It is basically a coin flip unless you really research the teams. It is too much work and the variance will kill you. I like poker because it is competitive and stategic.

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    1. You don't have much time left to get to Vegas before they start charging for parking. That's probably less than 2 months away.

      Steve007

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    2. @Darryl. I tend to agree. And as for research, can you really out-research the guys who make a living at it and set the lines?

      @Steve, yes I'm well aware of that. I may have to visit Vegas less if I have to pay to park....or not at all? It's total bullshit.

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    3. Rob--The lines aren't necessarily set according to what Vegas books expect. They're set to have the best opportunity to get similar amounts of money coming in on both sides. If one sides starts getting heavy, the lines move. They don't move because one team is suddenly better. Therefore, with the right research, you can find lines that aren't necessarily indicative of the game result, and get good value.

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    4. Research.....I don't have that kind of time. For me, I would rather spend that time studying to improve my poker game. And you can see how well that's been working out for me.

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  2. For me, prop bets are done during the Super Bowl only. They are done to make the game much more interesting and to try to make a profit, although I know it's likely I'll end up down. They also can be very profitable, if proper selection is used. The coin toss is literally a coin flip. However, I believe there was a book in Vegas giving +110 odds on Tails this year. If someone can get even money or better, it's definitely +EV.

    While the game itself is not always easy to predict, certain prop bets can be. For example, the over under on tackles + assists for defensive players. Von Miller and Luke Kuechly were near locks. Von Miller was set at Over/Under 3 -115 each side. The over was an easy win. Luke Kuechly was set at 8.5 -135, but as active as he is in the defense, it was a rather safe wager.

    As far as the National Anthem, it's not usually difficult to do research and find times from previous renditions or practice times. Bovada had the time set at 2min 20sec. The practice time for Lady Gaga was 2:16, and a previous rendition was 2:19 I believe. Given this is the Super Bowl, and a big stage, the possibility of her taking a little longer existed, but I thought it was more likely she was consistent or possibly a little quicker. She ended with a time of 2:09 per bovada.

    I ended up making close to 100 wagers in all, mainly prop bets for small sums. I also initially bet Carolina but placed 2 live in-game wagers on Denver, and finished with a small profit overall.

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    1. Congrats on making a little profit and thanks for explaining your method. very interesting.

      Trouble with betting on something like "most tackles" is what if the player gets hurt in the first quarter? You just never know.

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    2. Have you ever been all in preflop with AA and lost? You got your money in good, yes? That's all you can do, even in sports betting. Sometimes players get hurt, and you lose a prop bet. But if you can make +EV wagers, that's all we can ask for, correct?

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    3. You've got more of the gambling gene than I have, Nick. But then, I knew that from playing poker with you.

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    4. I'm not sure exactly how to take that....But I think (hope?) you were just making a statement, and not taking a shot at how I play.

      There are times when I do gamble more than I should. But there are also times when I play solid and make the right decisions.

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    5. A little sensitive there, no? All I meant is that I'm much more nitty than you are. No one who has played poker with both of us would argue with that.

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  3. The only betting I usually do on the Super Bowl is one of those office pool things where you buy a square on a grid and then they pay based on the score at the end of each quarter. Total crap shoot with no skill involved at all, but at least it gives me a little bit of a rooting interest in a game I otherwise wouldn't care much about.

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    1. Oh yes... I did always buy plenty of squares when I worked in an office! Hardly ever won tho. And it is weird to be rooting for a team you don't want to win to get a touchdown instead of a field goal (or whatever) just so you can win that quarter.

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