Aces vs Kings.....vs Queens???

This hand will serve as a follow up to my Aces vs. Kings post from awhile back, see here.  This is another one of those titanic battles, but with a twist, as suggested by the title. 

The question, after you read about the hand is, did I get lucky or did I get unlucky?  Or perhaps a bit of each?

This took place over my last weekend in Vegas on my most recent trip.  I was having a good night at the tables, and it was a really fun night too.  This will definitely not be the last blog post about this particular session, but for now, I want to isolate one hand. (Edited to add: In fact, for more on this poker session, see here)  I had more than doubled my $200 buy in when this hand took place, so I was sitting behind a stack of about $420.

In middle position I woke up with pocket Aces.  The guy under the gun limped in and then the next guy made it $16.

Hmm.  This might be fun, I thought.  He was a solid player who had been there awhile and had not exhibited any wild aggro tendencies.  I knew his early position raise meant he had a pretty big hand.  He had about $100 less than me, and been up and down not around that amount for most of the time.

It folded to me.  Because I don’t three-bet a lot, I never really know how much to bet there.  But my gut reaction is 3X the bet in front of me.  That’s probably too much.  Ideally I want to be heads up, I don’t want multi-way action.  I guess that’s what I was thinking when I put out $50 (the nearest “round” number to the $48 that 3X his bet would have been).  I would love feedback as to what the right amount there is.  Remember, there were a number of people behind me yet to act, in addition to the blinds, the limper and the original raiser.

It folds to the big blind, who wasted no time in putting out his entire stack.  It was a short-stack, around $70-$80.  That was fine by me, I figured with his stack he could do that with a lot of hands and he obviously couldn’t be ahead of me.

This guy was a bit odd.  He was Asian but not at all the stereotypical loose-aggressive type that you might expect.  You know, that I talked about here.  I really couldn’t remember him or having formed an opinion of his game.  That’s probably because, in addition to not being aggressive, he did not say one word at the table the entire time he was there, and spent the entire time there with his face buried in his celphone.  Seriously, he had that celphone in front of him the entire time he sat at the table.  I dunno if he was playing a game or texting, or what, but he seemed to be paying absolutely no attention to the game until this hand.

My recollection is that he came to the table with a stack of chips, i.e., he didn’t have to buy chips) and it was probably a similar amount to what he had just shoved with.

The limper folded instantly and then the original raiser took just a few seconds to put out a new, nice neat stack of $100.  He did not pull back the $16 he had out there, making the bet $116.

Again, I could use some advice.  Considering the stacks, what should I have done?  I shoved, but was that too much?  Should I have just doubled his bet?  Should I have tried harder not to scare him away since he had to have a lesser hand than mine (or, perhaps, the other two aces)?

But without much hesitation I announced, “all in.”  Because pretty much every time in the past when it’s four-bet to me (or is that a five-bet, considering the Asian’s all in?) and I’ve got Aces, that’s what I do.  I guess my real issue is that I don’t experience this often enough to know how to play it, which is too bad.

Back to the raiser, and he tanked.  He thought long and hard.  So he didn’t have the other two Aces or that’s a snap call.  I figured he had the dreaded pocket Kings.  Eventually, almost regrettably, he said, “call.”

Then he looked at me and said, “You have Aces?”  I nodded and just went ahead and flipped over my cards.  I asked him, “You have Kings?”  He nodded yes but didn’t show his hand.  The Asian, as usual, said and did nothing, preferring to focus his attention on his celphone.

Because I’ve seen it so many times, that multiple people are dealt big pairs in a hand, I thought for sure the Asian had two Queens.  So when a Queen hit the flopped, I figured it wasn’t good for me.

Nothing else of note filled out the board.  No King, no Ace, no straight or flush draws,  The Asian—silently of course—turned over his hand at that point and did indeed have a couple of Queens.  The guy who said he had Kings just mucked without showing.  The guy to his left, who hadn’t seen him nod to my question, asked him what he had and he said “Kings.”

Now I suppose a case could be made that he didn’t really have Kings there, since he didn’t show.  Usually in those situations, the guy who lost is eager to show his hand to show how unlucky he had been and that he hadn’t played it badly.

But I really doubt that.  I’d bet everything I won on that hand that he really did have a couple of Kings there.  I don’t think that guy calls my shove with anything less.  I think he was just too sick to flip over his cards.  He didn’t re-buy, he just left silently while I said to him, “Tough hand.”  I figured I owed him the respect of not giving him a totally insincere, “Sorry.”  I was not sorry.  Well I was sorry.  I was sorry that the Asian hit his damn Queen, that’s what I was sorry about.

So the Asian put down his celphone long enough to swoop in the main pot, which was roughly $240.  But the side pot was much bigger and belonged to me—well over $400. 

So the question was, was I lucky or unlucky?  When the all the money was in, I had the best hand.  Against a single hand there—assuming a big pair—I’m around a 80/20 favorite.  But against two hands, if they’re both big pairs, I’m only supposed to win 2 out of 3 times.  Still nice odds, but not as overwhelming as heads up.

So for a good long while I had two distinct, alternating thoughts in my head.

One: damn, why did that guy who couldn’t take his face away from his damn celphone have to hit his Queen?  That entire pot should have been mine and then it would have been really huge (over $600).  I got all my money in good.  Bad luck.

Two: well, if one of them had to hit their set, I’m sure glad it was the short-stacked guy.  If the guy with the $300 stack hit his set instead, I’d have lost over $300 right there, instead of winning well over $200.  Good luck.

I mean, if you told me in advance one of us was going to hit our set and it wasn’t going to be me, I would have picked the anti-social Asian to hit his hand, that’s for damn sure.

So was I lucky or unlucky?