Sunday, June 2, 2013

Overvaluing Ace-King

Before I get to the main point of this post, I just want to mention a coming attraction.  I ran into another of those women again.  You know, the kind that I love, a woman being outrageous, inappropriate and just plain fun right at the poker table, along the lines of my good friend Prudence and the totally insane Natalee.  No time to post the details of that session but let me just say, as a tease, that for the second time this trip, a woman has told me (and the other players) all about her rack right at the poker table.  And again, I mean “rack” in the sense you all want it to mean.  Just last weekend it was the vivacious Denise who did this, story (without the context, which I will hopefully get to some day) told here.

And speaking of racks, there was a woman at the table with me last night who had quite the large one, and she was absolutely working the Jennifer Tilly Effect, something I haven’t mentioned in awhile here on the blog, to the extreme.  She was a rather unusual looking woman, and I really couldn’t quite tell her age.  But I’m thinking it’s very likely her breasts were a lot younger than she was and that a plastic surgeon was involved with her at some point.  Anyway, she had gotten her money’s worth if they were indeed “add-ons” and she was only too happy to display her purchase in an extremely low cut dress.  I did lose some chips to her but I assure you it had nothing to do with this intentional distraction, I was just unlucky.  That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.


And speaking of woman who are outrageous and who like to talk about their breasts, the amazing Kim Shannon is in town right now.  Those of you aren’t following her on Twitter should be.  If you’re not on Twitter, you should sign up just to see her tweets*, believe me, it’s worth it.  Kim makes Prudence and Natalee look like nuns and she has the most wicked sense of humor you can possibly imagine.
I’m dying to meet her but thus far she has resisted my subtle suggestions that we have a face-to-face.  I’m concerned that she may be afraid I’m a creep or even a stalker.  Sigh.  Perhaps our mutual friend Jeanne , whose breasts have appeared on my blog—at her insistence, I might add—can convince her that I’m totally harmless and we should meet.  Actually, I’m pretty sure I final tabled—albeit briefly—the WPBT tournament last year (see here) with her pal, OnAFoldDraw.  So we’re practically family.
I know she came out here to crush souls by winning a boatload of tournaments, but I would love to play a cash game with her.  Even if she stacked me once or twice, as she likely would, I’m sure it would be worth it. If I can’t get a great post out of a poker session with Kim, I should retire from blogging.
OK, enough stalling.  This is, first and foremost, a serious poker blog, right?  Yeah, right.  Since my last post told the tale of a crushing loss when some fool made a terrible call against me and got lucky, let’s discuss the flip side of that equation, when somebody made an even worse call against me and didn’t hit.  And thus ask the age-old question, “Why do poker players overvalue Ace-King?”
I had about $200 in front of me and the guy to my immediate right had just come to the table within the past 10 minutes.  He had played a few hands, don’t think he’d won any, and had about $10-$20 more than I had.  I don’t think he’d seen me play a hand yet.
Early position raised to $15 and his wife called behind him.  The two were a fun couple and the woman was especially aggressive, making big raises fairly often.  I assumed the husband had something good and I think the wife would have called his raise (not any raise, but his raise) with any two cards just on principle.  Folds to the new guy on my right who bumps it to $37.
This pleased me greatly because I had pocket Aces.  I had been thinking how much I was going to raise the $15, but the $37 three-bet made it easier.  I put out a stack of $100, about half my stack.  Husband and wife both folded.  New guy wastes no time in announcing, “all in.”
Of course I wasted no time in saying, “call.”
I really figured that this was going to be one of those Aces vs. Kings situations.  Or, maybe, just maybe, he had pocket Queens. Not so. I flipped over my hand without hesitation, and he reluctantly flipped over his, Ace-King sooooted.  My Aces were both black and he had two hearts.
I was happy, knowing he had to catch at least two cards to win.  He actually caught a King on the flop, along with two low, black cards.  The turn and the river were both hearts, too little, too late.  They were also both low…..but not low enough for us both to make a wheel that would have chopped the pot.
I had a nice double up, but I just don’t understand his play.  He had no read on me whatsoever.  If he’d seen me four bet a lot, maybe he can put me on a hand he was ahead of.  Maybe.  But failing that, I don’t get it.  Why risk that much money needlessly against a player you don’t know?
In a tournament, there are many, many situations where his play there would make perfect sense.  But in a cash game?  Risking $200 on a drawing hand when you don’t have to? 
Seriously, having no read on me, what percentage of players in a 1/2 game are gonna four-bet with a hand that doesn’t crush AK?  Even if I do that with Queens or Jacks, he’s risking his stack on a flip where he’s the underdog.  Why do that?
Does he really think the average 1/2 player is gonna make the move I did with Ace-Queen or Ace-Jack?   Perhaps he assumed I had Ace-King also and he assumed he was protecting his investment on what was likely gonna be a chopped pot?  Do poker players really think like that?
He re-bought and the rest of the time I played with him, he seemed like a fairly reasonable player.  Did he just feel like rolling the dice that one time to try to get a quick double up?
I don’t get it.  I’m not complaining, not at all.  I was quite happy with his bad play and glad he help me have a profitable session.  But seriously, who overvalues Ace-King like that?
*--not a typo, sorry.

Edited to add:  got some interesting feedback on this hand so I posted it on AVP to get even more reaction.  If you want to read other opinions of the way my opponent played AK, see here.

14 comments:

  1. Well... When it gets back to him, there's a lot of dead money in the pot, and he holds blockers to the only hands that dominate him. And by shoving he gets to see all 5 board cards. This in general is why AK is a great move-in hand. I agree this is more suspect live where a 4b from a mild-mannered man such as yourself tends to indicate a much narrower range than online, but I still don't hate his play.

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    1. Thanks, Kat. I always appreciate contrarian views, and as well documented here, I don't claim to be an expert.

      Still, you have not convinced me. To me, risking $200 when the odds are overwhelming that you're way behind is too risky--I'd look for a better spot. If you want to just gamble like that, I think you're better off putting the $200 on black or red at the roulette wheel. But maybe that's why I'm not a better player! :)

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  2. He's risking $163. If your range is QQ+,AK he'd be making a mathematical error by folding.

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    1. Hmm.....ok, now you've given me a great homework assignment. I'm going do the math and see if you've made a fool out of me. Wouldn't be the first time (not YOU, that I recall, just not the first time it's happened to me, and it won't be the last).

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  3. Regarding what Kat said, I don't see how the caller holds "blockers" - his lone ace is useless he can hook up a straight, and with the king, he needs 2 of 3 remaining in the deck (or the straight, flush, 4 of a kind to hit the board, etc...). Just be thankful that he called... :)

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    1. Thanks Coach, I figured that was Kat was referring to (see below). His AK reduces the chances I have one of the two hands he most fears (tho if I have KK and he knows it's me, that's money in the bank for him!) :)

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  4. He holds blockers to an opponent holding AA or KK. In other words, by holding AK you halve the number of available combinations of AA and KK.

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    1. He's risking $163 for a pot that's $167...about even money. Of course he has fold equity there, I could fold. But it's unlikely that I would bet half my stack and then fold. But again, one of my initial comment was that he had absolutely no read on me, and if I have no read on a player, I don't expect him to four bet QQ at a 1/2 game in Vegas. Just my own observation. Maybe I'm being too conservative. If I have only $100 and I shove, yeah, I can easily read that as QQ or maybe even lower. But I see players open fold QQ in the situation I described all the time.

      When I call he's getting two to one. He wins more than 1/3 of the time?

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  5. Right he knows you're going to call when you invest half your stack, thus he knows he needs... he's a bit worse than 2 to 1... needs 38% and he's about 42% to win against QQ+,AK and 40% against KK+,AK. So the issue is does he read your 4b as ONLY AA and KK? If he does, which I agree is plausible, he should 3b-fold AKs which is pukey but oh well sigh. He's also making a slight mistake if you have QQ+. So I see three critical issues: 1. Do you ever 4b AK? 2. If your value 4b range is only QQ+ (or less), do you mix in light 4bs with hands like AXs and small pairs? (If you don't, you're highly exploitable, but so are most 1/2 players.) 3. While he may not have a read on you, has he been there long enough to notice the shenanigans of the husband and wife? If so, he knows that you know that he might be expanding his 3b range to isolate, thus you might be expanding your 4b range.

    Anyway, the main reason I jumped in here wasn't that I necessarily disagree with your main point - In a vacuum if I'd only played 2 orbits with you I might very well muck AKs in this spot. People with note-pads are rarely light 4-betters ;-) But based on the table chat I hear at 1/2 and 1/3 I think most people UNDERvalue AK.

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    1. Kat, I really, really appreciate all your thoughtful analysis. I love that and it makes think I'm actually doing a poker blog and not just a blog about tits. :)

      I think I will post this on AVP and see if I can get more feedback. I know I still have lots to learn about Hold'em in general and especially, No Limit in particular. It was barely more than a year ago when I would never dream of playing a NL cash game, and there is so much to learn.

      Assuming you're right, I DO undervalue AK....I not only never 4 bet it, I almost never three bet it (in a cash game)....only against super aggro players who I know are usually raising with crappy hands.

      I four bet rarely...AA, KK and well....that's it. So I guess I'm very exploitable. When I go out tonite, I'll pray that I'm up against somebody who reads this and I'll four-bet pocket 2's.....or 2-7! :)

      I don't think the guy had been there long enough to get a vibe on the husband and wife, other than that they were having a good time. He hadn't been there for an entire orbit.

      Thanks again, Kat.

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    2. Welcome. And good idea to stick it on AVP. I am notorious for being able to solve 2nd order differential equations but to screw up basic arithmetic. ~K

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    3. I'm definitely coming to you next time I need a differential equation solved.....

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  6. I am just wondering what a tough job it is to search for girlie photos to post ... having to see boobs and such. Sheesh!!!!! Great blog Rob ... all your posts are interesting and fun. How long has it been now that you've been blogging?

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    1. It's the bane of my existence, LM. I pray for the day when the blog is successful enough that I can hire someone else to do this dreaded task for me.

      Thanks. Started in September, 2011.

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