The Popular Vote Means......Nothing

OK, I am totally breaking format here with a post about the election and its aftermath.  I will get back to my surgery saga soon (I hope). But as mentioned in my last quickie post, I have been somewhat consumed by the election.  And an issue has come up about which I have something to say and I very rarely see the point I am going to make made.

So I hope you’ll indulge me.  If you have no interest in the election (or can’t bear to read anything about it because you’re too upset with the result), come back next time.

By the time I went to bed Tuesday night (really, Wednesday morning) after Trump gave his acceptance speech, I was already hearing that Hillary was likely to win the popular vote.  And I wondered if there would be a big to do about that.

Initially I didn’t see much, and I was relieved.  But more and more I’m seeing this referred to.  “Clinton won the popular vote.”   “Clinton got more votes than Trump.”  In some cases, this fact is being used as an argument to get rid of the Electoral College.  But more than that, I’m seeing this used to prove that the election was somehow “unfair.”  Much worse, however, I’m now seeing on social media and elsewhere this being used as an argument to try to persuade electors (from the Electoral College) to switch their votes from Trump to Hillary.  After all, she got more votes, shouldn’t she be our next President?

No.

Here’s what the fact that she won the popular vote means:

Nothing.

Absolutely nothing.

Now, I don’t mean this just because our constitution clearly states that the winner of the Presidency is decided by the Electoral College.

What I mean is that the neither campaign attempted to win the popular vote.  The campaigns knew it was irrelevant.  They both spent all their time trying to find a path to the 270 electoral votes that would insure them the Presidency, and based their campaign strategies on that.

If they had, instead, being trying to win the popular vote, they would have each had very different campaign strategies. 

Let’s say for the sake of argument that the Electoral College didn’t exist.  Do you think Trump or Hillary would have been campaigning so much in tiny New Hampshire?  Or Iowa?  Or Nevada? Or Colorado? Or in that one little congressional district in Maine?

Of course not.  They would have mapped out totally different strategies.  Neither campaign set foot in California or Texas or New York (except to raise money) but if they were trying to win the popular vote, they would have spent all their time in those states, along with Florida and Illinois and Ohio and Pennsylvania.  Even in deep blue California, there are plenty of Republican areas for the GOP to mine for votes.  Same thing in Texas for the Democrats.

Campaigns matter.  At least, with all the money they spend on them, you sure hope they do.  Not just the rallies, or the advertising, but the ground games, the get-out-the-vote efforts.  The GOP didn’t invest any money in getting out the vote in California.  You can be sure they would have invested plenty in California—perhaps their biggest effort—if the popular vote mattered.

Now, as it happens, since we’ve never elected a President by popular vote, no one really knows how to run a campaign to win it.  It’s unchartered territory.  So if we abolished the Electoral College between now and 2020, both parties would kind of be running by the seat of their pants, trying to figure out how best to do it on the fly. It would be interesting to see.  The winner of that election could very well be the campaign that figured it out first.  Actually, there would no doubt be somewhat different blueprints for each party.

But that’s just idle day dreaming.  For this past election, we did indeed have the Electoral College and each side tried damn hard to win it.  Trump did.  He’s the President-Elect.  That’s the way it works.

The fact is, that since neither side tried to win the popular vote—and would have had a massively different strategy had they tried—the winner of the popular vote is nothing more than a footnote.  It can be used to make no point whatsoever.  Period.

Am I saying that, if we didn’t have the Electoral College, Trump would have won the popular vote?  Not at all.  I have no idea what would have happened (except that I likely could have attended Trump and Hillary rallies without leaving my home county, Los Angeles county).  Neither do you.  Because all that time the candidates spent in New Hampshire and Nevada would have been spent in CA or NY or TX or IL.  And that would have made a big difference.

Look, you can’t change the rules after the game is over.  Trying to use the argument that Hillary won the popular vote to convince “faithless electors” who are committed to Trump to switch to her is ridiculous.

Imagine an NBA game where the Warriors beat the Spurs, 99-95.  And then the league decided, you know what?  We don’t think it’s fair that some baskets count for three points instead of two.  So we are going to re-score the game and every field goal only counts two points, no matter where the shot was taken from.  Spurs win 87-85.

Obviously, if the teams knew before the game started that all field goals were worth two points, they would have designed their offenses (and their defenses, for that matter) much differently.

If you’re gonna change the rules, you better do it before the game takes place, not after the fact.

I hope I’ve made my point clearly and you get it.  Because there’s another point I want to make, which will help explain how there could be such a (relatively) large discrepancy between the popular and electoral votes.

It has to do with my home state of California and the idiotic rules it has adopted for its own elections.

Most of those votes that keep adding on to Hillary’s total at this point are coming from California.  California in recent years has become the bluest of the blue states.  It’s been quite a few election cycles since the GOP candidate for President has even thought about trying to win in California.  With one notable exception (I’ll get to that), the GOP hasn’t won a statewide office in CA in nearly 20 years.  There are local GOP office holders—congress, legislature, etc.  But statewide, forget it.

So that in and of itself would mean that the California results are going to skew the national result.  Because CA is by far the most popular state in the union.

But you might not be aware of the way California holds its elections these days, and it affects the Presidential election results.  The last “Republican” to hold state-wide office was Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.  Before he left office, he somehow managed to convince Californians to change the primaries (for state offices, not the Presidential primary).  I believe it is called the “Top Two” primary.

All candidates that qualify to run enter a single primary and the top two vote getters, regardless of party affiliation, are on the ballot in the general.  Voters get to vote for one person.  So for Governor, you could have four Democrats, three Republicans, two Libertarians, a Green party candidate and a bunch of independents all on that ballot in June competing for the top two slots.  The end result could be two Democrats running against each other in November.  Or two Republicans.  Or a Democrat vs a Libertarian.  You get the idea.

As California is turning bluer and bluer by the hour, more and more often it turns out that, on the statewide level at least, it is two Democrats running against each other.  Note, locally, there are more likely to be different parties running against each other.  There are lots of congressional and legislative districts that are competitive, and swing from one party to another every so often.

Personally, I think this kind of primary is the worst idea since the dawn of time.  Yes, it is actually dumber than the Designated Hitter rule in baseball, and I didn’t think that was possible.

Anyway, to tie this up…..this year, on our CA ballot, there were only two statewide races.  The Presidential race of course and a Senate race.  Note:  Governor and all other statewide offices take place in the off year elections.  So 2018 there will be a bunch of statewide offices on the ballot.  But in a Presidential year, there may not be even a Senate race, but if there is, that is the only other statewide race.

This year’s senate race, as predicted, was a contest between two Democrats.  There were virtually no differences in their policies or their ideology.  They were both female too.  So if you wanted to vote for a woman, it still didn’t matter who you voted for. And if you were a sexist and wanted to vote against a female candidate, you were out of luck. Only if you were totally invested in identity politics did it matter.  One was half black and half Indian.  The other was Hispanic.  Man, if you wanted a woman who was half Hispanic and half Indian, it was quite a dilemma. 

(Note:  I make fun of identity politics because I hate it.  If someone says, “Vote for me because I’m a woman, or black, or Hispanic, or gay, or Jewish” that is the surest way to lose my vote.  Instead, you better tell me you have good character and why your policies are right for the state or the nation).

Now as we know, this year we were presented with a particularly unpleasant choice at the Presidential level.  The two most unpopular candidates of all-time.

And in California, to make it even more unappealing to vote, the second biggest “draw” on the ballot was a Senate race between Tweedle Dum and Tweedle Dee. 

Perhaps if you were a Democrat, you could find enough of a distinction to choose one of the Senate candidates.  But if you were a Republican, it was hard to find motivation to go to the polls to select between Democrat A or Democrat B.

So, knowing that your vote for President didn’t matter because there was not a chance in hell that Hillary wasn’t going to win CA’s electoral votes, and with no down ballot office worth voting for, it is likely that GOP turnout in CA was really low (I tried to confirm this but I don’t see that the numbers are in yet).

But imagine if there was no Electoral College?  Knowing their votes would actually count, California Republicans would have been much more likely to go to the polls.  Admittedly, California Democrats would be more motivated to vote too.  But psychologically, I think it is more likely that Republicans (who know they are going to lose in CA) stay home than Democrats (who know they are going to win).

So you see that popular vote is really inflated for Hillary because in the most popular state, Republicans had no motivation to vote.  If it mattered (if popular vote determined the winner), you can bet every Republican in CA would have been called a dozen times to get them to the polls, and Trump would have lost the state by less than the 28% he did.

Anecdotally, I know several California Republicans who registered their disgust with the choices by not voting for President, leaving it blank.  From my conversations, they were taking the easy way out, knowing that it didn’t matter.  But I’ll bet most of them would have voted for Trump if they felt their voted counted.

As for me personally, I had every reason not to vote.  I was just barely out of the hospital after my triple bypass.  I was uninspired by either Presidential candidate.  There was no real choice for Senate.  Yeah, there were a few propositions on the ballot I wanted to vote on, but nothing earth-shattering.

In the end, though, I felt it was my duty to vote, and I figured out a way to do it. It wasn’t easy, but it was the right thing to do. And now I am very glad I did.

Anyway, I hope you can see how totally irrelevant the popular vote is.  It proves nothing under our current system. It’s not even worth talking about.  As long as candidates are running to win the Electoral College, the popular vote is meaningless.

And needless to say, I would be saying the exact same thing if Hillary won the Electoral College and Trump won the popular vote.

By the way, if you want to see a short video explaining the benefits of the Electoral College, see here.

Just a Quick Update

I had hoped to publish another chapter in my surgery saga by now, but all I can do is get this quick update on my current status online.

On Monday I went to see a cardiologist.  This was my first time out in public on my own, and my first experience using Lyft.  I’ll get the good news out of the way first.  The cardiologist says everything looks good, my recovery is proceeding well.  No issues that he can see.

But it was an ordeal for me going to see the doc, alone.  In addition to the cardiologist, I had to walk to get a chest X-ray (haven’t heard back, so I assume everything is ok) and also to the pharmacy.  It is a big medical complex, so much walking.

On top of that, this being the first time using Lyft, I kind of did some extra walking because of my unfamiliarity with the app.  To make matters worse, I gave the Lyft driver the wrong address to pick me up at the medical facility.  That meant walking a whole bunch to find her.

The visit wiped me out for a day, maybe two.  Needless to say, it doesn’t take much to tire me out these days.

After that, being the political junkie I am (despite thus far attempting to keep politics off this blog), I’ve been spending a lot of my waking hours from Tuesday on engulfed in the election and its aftermath.  It was such a historic election, how could I not?  Really, no one saw it coming and I’m still waiting for someone to write the definitive explanation about how everyone got it so wrong. 

Anyway, I’m hoping I’ll be able to get back to some serious writing in the next couple of days.  Hopefully I’m getting a little bit stronger and have a little more energy every day.  

Martingaling My Way Through An Angiogram

And we pick up the write up of my recent bypass surgery right where we left off.  The previous chapter can be found here).

Sometime that morning a doctor came by to check on me.  She assured me that the angiogram was a routine operation and I had nothing to worry about.  I did mention to her that I would really like to go to my car to get a few items before being transported to Sunset.  I told her that two nurses had told me that this might be possible.  But she said I got some bad info.  With all the monitors hooked up to me, there was no way they'd take me to car.  Not a chance.

So I was stuck with a dying celphone.  I didn't borrow another charger, because it was close to the time that they would be taking me to the new facility.  I did my best to preserve my power, which meant not using the phone most of the time.  Which being bored as hell, as I had absolutely no entertainment available to me at all. Daytime TV was even less interesting to me than nighttime TV.  And I wasn't distracted by a meal—I couldn't eat or drink before the procedure.

After what seemed like an eternity, the ambulance guys showed up right on time.  They moved me from the hospital bed to the ambulance gurney, grabbed all my things (mostly clothes, keys, wallet) and wheeled me to the ambulance. 

The ride in the ambulance was interesting.  It was a first for me, fortunately I'd never been in ambulance before.  It was a pretty claustrophobic in there.  Also, it was interesting riding around town and trying to figure out where we were by only looking out the back window of the car.  I had to figure out where we were by seeing the freeway signs for exits we had just passed.  The other thing of note—it was a whole new perspective for me to appreciate just how badly people drive.  I saw a whole bunch of cars that really came close to clipping the ambulance.  All I could think of was that if anyone hit us, I might miss the scheduled time for my procedure due to the exchange of insurance and driver's licenses.

That didn't happen.  The ambulance took me directly to the area where they do the angiograms.  It was huge area with a ton of tiny cubicles.  I was wheeled into my cubicle and greeted by my nurse, a young Asian fellow.  The first order of business was logging in my personal belongings, which had survived the trip from Panorama City.  He made a note of all my clothes, my watch, and then while I was carefully monitoring, he went into my wallet.  He noted my driver’s license, all my credit cards, and then counted my cash.

Remember that I had intended to drive to Vegas two days from then.  Thus, I had $750 cash on me.  The nurse did a double take at that, and then said that he would make sure to put the bag that had my pants and wallet (and cash) with me when they wheeled me into to the room where they would do the angiogram. Usually it would stay behind in my cubicle, but he thought it would be safer to have it with me during the procedure.

The nurse told me I’d be there awhile.  When they said my procedure was at 2PM, they meant that’s when they wanted me to be there.  Now that I was there, they’d put me on the schedule and it would be at least until 3:30 before they’d get to me.  I later learned that facility did 28 angiograms that day, which was a lot for them.  They were very busy.

And then the nurse asked me the immortal question, “Did they shave you at Panorama City?”  I said yes.  “Well, I’ll have to check, most of the time they don’t do a very good job.”  I wasn’t in the least bit surprised by his statement.  So he checked.  Guess what?  “Yeah, I’m gonna have shave you again, sorry.  They weren’t very thorough.”

Ok, so why do they even bother?  It gave credence to my theory that the old biddy who shaved me earlier that morning did it for her own thrills and not to help prepare me for surgery.

Thus, for the second time this day, a total stranger took a razor to my pubes.  It was indeed my lucky day.

I was basically stuck there, flat on my back, for 90 minutes or more.  I had my celphone but was still trying to preserve power. This was a different kind of facility than I’d been in the previous night, and I didn’t even try to borrow a charger.  I just turned on my phone sporadically to check for messages.

Finally the nurse said I was on the schedule and the angiogram medical techs would be by any minute to wheel me to the room where the procedure would be done.

A few minutes later, two or three guys in scrubs came by to take me away.  They were in their mid-30’s I guess.  The nurse handed them the bag with my pants (and my money) and told them that it had to go with me because there was $750 cash in there.  So one of the techs said, “$750?  Let’s run that up to $1,000.”   I laughed and said, “How…..you gonna take it to Vegas?”

He did a double take and said, “I like your thinking.”  Then, to one of the other techs he said, “Did you see they approved the stadium deal for the Raiders to move to Vegas? Some big casino owner is behind it. It’s that guy…..”  he was drawing a blank on the name, so I helped him out.  “Sheldon Adelson….he owns the Venetian.”

“Yeah, that’s it,” the tech said.  Then a couple of them had a discussion of what it would mean if the Raiders moved to Vegas.  I honestly can’t recall if I participated in the discussion or not.

As they got me in the room where the angiogram would be performed, the same guy said, “Just out of curiosity, what do you do for a living, sir?”

“I work in the poker business.”

The guy said, “Aha, no wonder you know so much about Vegas.  So when you say you work in the poker business….do you play?”

I understood his question to mean, am I professional poker player?  I said, “Well, I play poker, but I don’t play for a living.”  I may or may not have described what I actually do. 

Then he said, “Here’s how I win money in Vegas.  I play blackjack.  I bet $15.  If I lose, I bet $30.  If I lose again I bet $60.  I keep doubling until I win.”   I may have the details wrong, but he pretty much described a classic Martingale style betting progression.

I said, “That’s not really a good idea.  It’s dangerous.  Sooner or later you’re gonna be betting a fortune to win $15.  And you’ll either run out of money or have to bet more than the maximum bet to chase that $15.”  He said, “Yeah….well it’s always worked for me.  I always win by the 6^th bet.  I’ve never run out of money.”  Hmm….because they were prepping me, I didn’t pursue this.  I had other things on my mind. But I do recall thinking, “Well, at least I got some material appropriate for my blog out of this.”

The room where they do the angiogram was huge.  I mean really, really big.  Not sure why it has to be that big, but it helps explain why they don’t do this at the facility I originally checked into.  They put floating X-ray device over my chest while two doctors seemed to be working near my legs.

They don’t knock you out for this, they just sedate you.  Pretty amazing when you think about it, that they stick a catheter in your groin, run it and some dye through your arteries all the way to your heart, and you are conscious the entire time.  Of course, just a few months back I had cataract surgery and they didn’t knock me out while they were cutting open my eyeball.

So although I was relaxed and in no pain during the procedure, I was aware of everything that was going on.  I heard the two doctors talking, but I couldn’t make out exactly what they were saying.  However, it was pretty clear to me they weren’t happy with what they were seeing.  I kept hoping to hear something positive, but I never did.

Finally one of the came over to me and gave me the bad news. I don’t recall exactly what he said, but it was something like, “Well, we’re sorry, the stents aren’t going to work for you.  You need bypass surgery.  We’ll get you on the schedule as soon as we can.”

Fortunately I was sedated so I didn’t scream, but clearly this was not the diagnosis I was looking for.  They finished up and wheeled me back to my cubicle, where my nurse was waiting for me.

As if the news wasn’t bad enough, I was now extremely uncomfortable and destined to be that way for some time.  After the procedure, I had to keep extremely still, very minimal movement.  Especially the right leg (the side they put the catheter in).  I couldn’t move that one iota.  After an hour or so, I was allowed to move my left leg a little, but it was like four hours before I was able to move that right leg.

The nurse told me that he was gonna try to get me some food.  Remember, I hadn’t eaten all day and it was now maybe 4-5 pm.  He said I’d stay there until they had an actual hospital room for me upstairs.  He said it would be awhile. 

Eventually a cardiac surgeon came by to discuss my condition.  He reiterated that there was a lot of blockage visible, and it would take a triple bypass to repair it. He explained the procedure somewhat.  He said they were booked solid for tomorrow (a Friday), so they would likely schedule me for early the following week.  Needless to say, I would be stuck in the hospital until then.   He also said, “We usually only do emergencies on the weekends.  Obviously no one wants to work the weekends.”  That’s not an exact quote, but definitely the gist of it.

Somehow, with my minimally allowed movement, I was able to use my phone to contact my friends and relatives and let them know what was going on.  And then I had to ask LM & Woody a huge, really huge favor.  Since I would be in a hospital room for three days before they even took a knife to me, it was imperative to me that I get that stuff out of my car.  Could they drive to where I was in Hollywood, pick up car keys, drive to Panorama City, get the stuff out of my car, and bring it back to me?  It was a helluva lot to ask, but they didn’t hesitate for a second.

The nurse kept me updated on the status of my room….but it boiled down to “eventually.”  Meanwhile I was extremely uncomfortable lying still (and thinking about the surgery).  And my celphone was near death. I was waiting to get to a room, where I assumed I could borrow a charger.  In the meantime, I turned the phone off and just lied there bored and thinking about what my life would be like for the next 6-7 weeks.  I mean, assuming I survived the surgery.

By the way, there actually was a TV for my cubicle, but it was broken.

And that’s where I’ll leave it for now.  Hopefully I’ll have another chapter later this week. Here's my recovery update:  Been back home a few days now, getting used to that.  I'm supposed to see a cardiologist tomorrow so I'll have a better idea how they think I'm coming along.  I am at least sleeping better now that I'm back in my own bed.  It's a slow process.